Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. In 2018, there were 18.1 million new cases and 9.5 million cancer-related deaths worldwide.
By 2040, the number of new cancer cases per year is expected to rise to 29.5 million and the number of cancer-related deaths to 16.4 million.
The global cancer burden is set to rise dramatically in the coming decades, with over 35 million new cases predicted to be diagnosed in 2050, according to a statement from the World Health Organization (WHO). This represents a 77% increase from the 20 million cases reported in 2022.
The WHO's International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has identified several key factors contributing to this estimated rise, including tobacco and alcohol consumption, obesity, and air pollution.
The growing cancer burden reflects both population aging and growth, as well as changes in people's exposure to risk factors, many of which are associated with socioeconomic development.
Developed countries are expected to see the greatest increases in case numbers, with an additional 4.8 million new cases predicted to be diagnosed in 2050 compared to 2022 estimates. However, countries on the lower end of the Human Development Index (HDI) used by the United Nations will see the greatest proportional increase, with a projected rise of 142%. Countries in the medium range are expected to record a 99% increase.
Cancer mortality in these countries is also projected to nearly double by 2050, according to the WHO.
Generally, cancer rates are highest in countries whose populations have the highest life expectancy, education level, and standard of living. But for some cancer types, such as cervical cancer, the reverse is true, and the incidence rate is highest in countries in which the population ranks low on these measures.
Efforts to prevent and control cancer must be scaled up, with a focus on reducing exposure to risk factors and improving access to cancer care, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
Approximately 39.5% of men and women will be diagnosed with cancer at some point during their lifetimes (based on 2015–2017 data). In 2020, an estimated 16,850 children and adolescents ages 0 to 19 will be diagnosed with cancer and 1,730 will die of the disease.
Many of the most commonly diagnosed cancers have ten-year survival of 50% or more (2010-11). More than 80% of people diagnosed with cancer types which are easier to diagnose and/or treat survive their cancer for ten years or more (2010-11).
Why is cancer so common? The main reason cancer risk overall is rising is because of our increasing lifespan. And the researchers behind these new statistics reckon that about two-thirds of the increase is due to the fact we're living longer. The rest, they think, is caused by changes in cancer rates across different age groups.
What cancers have the worst survival rate? The cancers with the lowest five-year survival estimates are mesothelioma (7.2%), pancreatic cancer (7.3%) and brain cancer (12.8%). The highest five-year survival estimates are seen in patients with testicular cancer (97%), melanoma of skin (92.3%) and prostate cancer (88%)
The most common risk factors for cancer include aging, tobacco, sun exposure, radiation exposure, chemicals, and other substances, some viruses and bacteria, certain hormones, family history of cancer, alcohol, poor diet, lack of physical activity, or being overweight.
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